Modern Mercantilism

Modern Mercantilism We are in a new geopolitical and macroeconomic paradigm. For decades, globalization—characterized by rising trade and capital liberalization—defined the world order. That era is over. In its place is emerging what we call “modern mercantilism,” where national self-interest takes precedence over global cooperation. While this transition has been underway for years, it has now sharply accelerated. A global system of interdependence, built since the dawn of the US-led postwar era, is unraveling. Explore a selection of our insights on this shifting landscape and the profound implications it holds for the global economy, markets, and monetary system. Taking Stock of the New Paradigm, with Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour July 16, 2026 Karen Karniol-Tambour, Jim Haskel In an excerpt from our Q2 CIO call, Karen Karniol-Tambour lays out where we stand today in the new paradigm shaped by modern mercantilism and AI, and describes what investors can do to navigate this environment. Karen Karniol-Tambour on Investing in a More Fragmented World May 3, 2026 Karen Karniol-Tambour At the Milken Institute's 2026 Global Conference, Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour discusses the investment implications of a world increasingly organized around resilience, industrial policy, and competing economic ecosystems. Two Resource Grabs Reshaping Markets: Modern Mercantilism and AI April 22, 2026 Greg Jensen, Jim Haskel In an excerpt from our Q1 CIO call, Greg Jensen describes how modern mercantilism and AI are driving two accelerating resource grabs and what that means for navigating markets and portfolios today. Building Resilient Portfolios in a Changing Global Environment April 15, 2026 Bob Prince At the HSBC Global Investment Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, Co-CIO Bob Prince joins HSBC Private Bank CEO Ida Liu to discuss managing money in a global landscape being reshaped by modern mercantilism and AI, as well as Asia’s role in providing diversification to today’s portfolios. Global Outlook: Our CIOs on Modern Mercantilism, AI, and Managing Money Today January 14, 2026 Karen Karniol-Tambour, Greg Jensen, Bob Prince, Jim Haskel In an excerpt from our Q4 CIO call, Karen, Greg, and Bob describe the new investment regime—defined by AI and modern mercantilism—and share how investors can build a resilient portfolio in the current environment. Greg Jensen on the "In Good Company" Podcast November 26, 2025 Co-CIO Greg Jensen joins Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, to unpack the geo-political and economic impact of modern mercantilism, the global AI race, and how Bridgewater is building for the future. How Canada Is Responding to American Mercantilism November 13, 2025 Ben Melkman, Adam Zimbler, Cengiz Cemaloglu As countries grapple with the US’s more mercantilist trade policy, Canada offers a window into how different economies may respond to these pressures. Power Politics: Energy Self-Sufficiency in a Modern Mercantilist World October 16, 2025 Karen Karniol-Tambour, Ian Singer, Daniel Hochman, Jeremy Ng Cheap, abundant electricity is critically important to the AI race and national competitiveness. We take stock of energy supply and security across the US, China, and Europe. What Would It Take to Bring Back US Manufacturing? Part 1: America’s Structural Headwinds July 2, 2025 Danny DeBois, Aidan Madigan-Curtis, Kate Dunbar, Kenza Wilks Without more domestic manufacturing, tariffs are likely to result in lower margins and higher prices. In Part 1 of this series, we explore the structural pressures that make growing US manufacturing so challenging. The New York Times: This Is Who Loses in a Trade War March 10, 2025 For decades, America has consumed much more than it produces, financing persistent trade deficits with debt that foreign investors are happy to buy. President Trump is unwilling to accept this state of affairs. In a guest essay for the New York Times, co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour describes what this shift means for Europe’s economic and security paradigm, the changes that are needed, and the barriers to reform. CEO Nir Bar Dea on Geofragmentation and the Global Shift to Modern Mercantilism February 20, 2025 Nir joins the “Board of Changemakers” panel at FII Priority in Miami to discuss ongoing geopolitical fragmentation, the changing macroeconomic landscape, and how Bridgewater has aligned itself to help investors navigate this challenging environment. We’re All Mercantilists Now November 25, 2024 Greg Jensen, Danny DeBois, Will Barnes As a key part of understanding what is to come, we are working through how to model the effects of modern-day mercantilism. In this report, we share some thoughts on that endeavor. More Featured Research Portfolio Challenges Artificial Intelligence